Programs and grants to provide direct assistance to address the housing crisis in California.
Make A Donation to HAFThe Rising Star Award program is a C.A.R. initiative designed to work with the brokerage community to recognize their up-and-coming agents.
C.A.R. stands ready to assist REALTORS® who have been impacted by wildfires through its Disaster Relief Fund and NAR's REALTORS® Relief Foundation.
California Disaster ResourcesDo you have an innovative idea(s) with regards to real estate? Submit your idea(s) for a chance to partner with C.A.R. and transform tomorrow's industry!
Scholarships for California students planning to pursue a career in real estate.
Find out more information on key diversity and inclusion programs and projects available.
Latinx Professionals Network C.A.R. Women's InitiativeNew to the industry? YPN is a network to sharpen your skills, heighten your leadership, and connect with fellow REALTORS®.
As a member of C.A.R., you receive more than 100 free and discounted benefits. Find out more about your member benefits here.
C.A.R. Member Discounts NAR Member Discounts C.A.R. Insurance ProductsAs a new member of C.A.R. you have questions about your benefits and discounts. Find the answers here.
Member FAQsC.A.R.'s annual consumer advertising campaign creates awareness of the REALTOR® brand and demonstrates the many benefits of the consumer-REALTOR® relationship.
Who's Your REALTOR®?C.A.R. is a statewide trade association dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate.
Annual ReportC.A.R.'s Media Center houses the Association's news releases, media guidelines, and logos.
News ReleasesLooking for additional assistance? The Customer Contact Center is looking forward to serving you Monday through Friday between the hours of 8:30 a.m. and 4:45 p.m.
This site is designed to assist you in your profession by providing access to information on events
Need help finding the right person? Try searching through our various rosters & directories.
FOR RELEASE
September 26, 2019
C.A.R. releases its 2020 California Housing Market Forecast
Economic uncertainty and affordability issues to subdue California home sales
LOS ANGELES (Sept. 26) – Low mortgage interest rates will support California’s housing market in 2020 but economic uncertainty and affordability issues will mute sales growth, according to a housing and economic forecast released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).
C.A.R.’s “2020 California Housing Market Forecast” sees a small uptick in existing single-family home sales of 0.8 percent next year to reach 393,500 units, up from the projected 2019 sales figure of 390,200. The 2019 figure is 3.1 percent lower compared with the pace of 402,800 homes sold in 2018.
The California median home price is forecast to increase 2.5 percent to $607,900 in 2020, following a projected 4.1 percent increase from last year to $593,200 in 2019.
“With interest rates expected to remain near three-year lows, buyers have more purchasing power than in years past, but they may be reluctant to get off the sidelines because of economic and market uncertainties,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “Additionally, an affordability crunch will cut into demand in some regions such as the Bay Area, where affordability is significantly below state and national levels. These factors together will subdue sales growth next year.”
C.A.R.’s forecast projects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product of 1.6 percent in 2020, after a projected gain of 2.2 percent in 2019. With California’s 2020 nonfarm job growth rate at 1.0 percent, down from a projected 1.5 percent in 2019, the state’s unemployment rate will tick up to 4.5 percent in 2020 from 2019’s 4.3 projected figure.
The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will dip to 3.7 percent in 2020, down from 3.9 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in 2018 and will remain low by historical standards.
“California’s housing market will be challenged by changing migration patterns as buyers search for more affordable housing markets, particularly by first-time buyers, who are the hardest hit, moving out of state,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “With California’s job and population growth rates tapering, the state’s affordability crisis is having a negative impact on the state economically as we lose the workers we need most such as service and construction workers, and teachers.”
In fact, according to C.A.R.’s 2019 State of the Housing Market Study, nearly a third (30 percent) of those sellers who planned on repurchasing said that they will buy their next home in another state outside of California — the highest level since 2005. Older generations were more likely to buy outside of California as 37 percent of baby boomers and silent generation planned on repurchasing in another state, but only 30 percent of Millennial sellers planned to do the same.
2020 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019p |
2020f |
|
|
SFH Resales (000s) |
409.4 |
417.7 |
424.9 |
402.8 |
390.2 |
393.5 |
|
% Change |
7.00% |
2.00% |
1.70% |
-5.20% |
-3.10% |
0.80% |
|
Median Price ($000s) |
$476.30 |
$502.30 |
$537.90 |
$570.00 |
$593.20 |
$607.90 |
|
% Change |
6.60% |
5.40% |
7.10% |
6.00% |
4.10% |
2.50% |
|
Housing Affordability Index* |
31% |
31% |
29% |
28% |
32% |
32% |
|
30-Yr FRM |
3.90% |
3.60% |
4.00% |
4.50% |
3.90% |
3.70% |
p = projected
p = projected
f = forecast
* = % of households who can afford median-priced home
Leading the way ...® in real estate news and information for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
# # #
