x
Industry 360°

Housing Market Forecast

The latest housing market forecast and projection to what lays ahead.


Data & Statistics

View the latest sales and price numbers. Find out where sales will be in upcoming months.

Current Sales & Price Statistics
Housing Matters Podcast

Your housing hub for market analysis, economic trends, and housing news.


Weekly Market Minute

Get a roundup of weekly economic and market news that matters to real estate and your business.


Shareable and Interactive Reports

Gain insights through interactive dashboards and downloadable content. 

All Shareable Reports All Interactive Dashboards
Speeches & Presentations

Catch up with the latest outreaches and webinars by the Research and Economics team.


Surveys & Reports

C.A.R. conducts survey research with members and consumers on a regular basis to get a better understanding of the housing market and the real estate industry. Results and analyses from these studies are released in different formats – written report, power-point, infographic, webinar, and podcast - and can be found in this section.


Stay Connected

Stay connected with the latest releases by subscribing to the products and services that interest you.


Model MLS Rules/Materials

California Model MLS Rules, Issues Briefing Papers, and other articles and materials related to MLS policy.


CAR Interboard Arbitration

Looking for information on how to file an interboard arbitration complaint?  You've come to the right place!  Find the rules, timeline and filing documents here.


Code of Ethics Violators

Summaries and photos of California REALTORS® who violated the Code of Ethics and were disciplined with a fine, letter of reprimand, suspension, or expulsion.


NAR Code of Ethics

The most recent edition of the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice of the National Association of REALTORS®.


Professional Standards Materials

The California Professional Standards Reference Manual, Local Association Forms, NAR materials and other materials related to Code of Ethics enforcement and arbitration.


Legislation

C.A.R. advocates for REALTOR® issues in Washington D.C., Sacramento and in city and county governments throughout California.


PACs and RAF

CREPAC, LCRC, IMPAC, ALF and the RAF comprise C.A.R.'s political fundraising arm.

REALTOR® Action Fund
Politics and You

Learn how you can make a difference, by getting involved yourself or by passing along valuable information to your clients.


Arbitration Rules

California Code of Ethics and Arbitration Rules and external link to JAMS Arbitration service.


Legal Matters Podcast

Learn on-the-go! The Legal Matters Podcast gives you bite-size nuggets of power-packed legal information that will help you protect yourself and your clients. Join our attorneys for a “Legal Bedtime Story” or for the scoop on vital issues like the “Top 5 RPA Mistakes”.


CLOSE

What is This?
Add a quick link to this page from the Homepage when you are signed in
Share Article

 

November 21, 2022 – The housing market remains slow as it enters the traditional holiday season. With interest rates rising to the highest level in the last 20 years, both sales and prices had a soft month in October. While last week’s increase in mortgage applications due to the recent decline in rates is encouraging news, market sentiment – including those of builders – continues to lean more towards the side of caution.

California home sales bear brunt of higher interest rates in October: Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 274,040. October marked the 16 consecutive month of negative year-over-year growth, and it was the third time in the last four months that sales dropped more than 30%. Homes were listed on the market for a median of 23 days before escrow opened, more than doubled from that in October of last year when the median was 11 days. Inventory inched up but remained low by historical standards. Tight supply has kept prices afloat thus far, even as demand has pulled back significantly. Nevertheless, October had the slowest year-over-year price growth in the last 29 months and prices should continue to moderate in the months ahead.

Mortgage applications increase as mortgage rates tumble: Following the latest inflation data release which suggests a slowdown in overall price growth in the economy, mortgage rates decreased last week as Treasury yields dropped sharply. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac, averaged 6.61% as of November 17. This was down from 7.08% the week prior and was the biggest week-to-week decline in the last four decades. In response to the decline in rates, total mortgage applications recorded a weekly gain of 2.7% for the weekly ending November 11, 2022. Most of the increase in application activity was due to the seasonally adjusted increase of 4% in purchase applications from the week prior. Refinance activity, on the other hand, continued to move downward by another 2% from the previous week and was down 88% from the level observed one year ago.

House construction declines more than expected: Home builders remain reluctant to increase inventory as housing starts and permits both dropped in October. Residential starts dropped for the second straight month, with a monthly decline of 4.2%, to 1.425 million-unit pace in October. Total housing starts contracted in three of the four regions, with the West falling by 10.6%. Starts improved modestly in the South (6.7%), but the gain was due entirely to an increase in multifamily starts. Constructions in the multi-family sector have been more resilient to the effects of rising rates, as multifamily starts continued to outpace last year’s level by 17.8%, despite a dip from the prior month. With demand slowing in the purchase market, developers are shifting their building effort in the rental market in recent months and most likely in the near future.     

Builder confidence declines for 11 straight months: The index by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) measuring builders’ sentiment towards the housing market, dropped another 5 points to 33 in November. This was the 11th consecutive decline and was the lowest builders’ confidence reached since June 2012, outside of the onset of the pandemic. The drop in builders’ sentiment was attributed primarily to elevated interest rates, persistently high building material costs, and a growing affordability challenge that continues to dry out a once overflowing pipeline of buyer traffic. Nearly 3 in 5 builders were using incentives to attract buyers into the marketplace. One quarter of them (25%), for example, said they paid points for buyers to buy-down mortgage rate. Another one-third (37%) said they cut prices in November, a surge from 26% in September.

Retail sales’ strength sustains but concern is growing: Retail sales up again in October, with goods spending and service spending both up solidly from the prior month. Nominal retail sales rose 1.3% on a month-to-month basis and increased 8.3% from the same time last year. On the surface, consumers appear to be resilient but the surge in credit card borrowing in the third quarter suggests that they are struggling to keep up the pace. Some sales recorded in October could also be holiday shopping being pulled forward, as major retailers started offering holiday promotion and discounting during the month. As such, holiday sales could slow more than expected in the upcoming months.

Weekly Data for Week Ending 2022-11-19

 


SUPPORT
Top Searches
;