x
Industry 360°

Housing Market Forecast

The latest housing market forecast and projection to what lays ahead.


Housing Matters Podcast

Your housing hub for market analysis, economic trends, and housing news.


Market Minute

Get a roundup of weekly economic and market news that matters to real estate and your business.


Speeches & Presentations

Catch up with the latest outreaches and webinars by the Research and Economics team.


Surveys & Reports

C.A.R. conducts survey research with members and consumers on a regular basis to get a better understanding of the housing market and the real estate industry. Results and analyses from these studies are released in different formats – written report, power-point, infographic, webinar, and podcast - and can be found in this section.


Stay Connected

Stay connected with the latest releases by subscribing to the products and services that interest you.


Model MLS Rules/Materials

California Model MLS Rules, Issues Briefing Papers, and other articles and materials related to MLS policy.


CAR Interboard Arbitration

Looking for information on how to file an interboard arbitration complaint?  You've come to the right place!  Find the rules, timeline and filing documents here.


Code of Ethics Violators

Summaries and photos of California REALTORS® who violated the Code of Ethics and were disciplined with a fine, letter of reprimand, suspension, or expulsion.


NAR Code of Ethics

The most recent edition of the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice of the National Association of REALTORS®.


2021 Mediator Training for REALTORS®

C.A.R. is presenting a 4-day Mediator Training for REALTORS® via Zoom webinar.  All REALTORS® are welcome to register.


Professional Standards Materials

The California Professional Standards Reference Manual, Local Association Forms, NAR materials and other materials related to Code of Ethics enforcement and arbitration.


Legislation

C.A.R. advocates for REALTOR® issues in Washington D.C., Sacramento and in city and county governments throughout California.


PACs and RAF

CREPAC, LCRC, IMPAC, ALF and the RAF comprise C.A.R.'s political fundraising arm.

REALTOR® Action Fund
Podcast: Unlocking CA Politics

Get the inside scoop on politics, legislation, housing policy, and housing news from C.A.R. Government Affairs and their guest experts.


Politics and You

Learn how you can make a difference, by getting involved yourself or by passing along valuable information to your clients.


Arbitration Rules

California Code of Ethics and Arbitration Rules and external link to JAMS Arbitration service.


Recent Legal Developments

Summaries of legislation and regulation effecting REALTORS® and updates on news relevant to REALTORS®.


Real Estate Cases and Other Legal Resources

Important industry cases, resources and information


Legal Matters Podcast

Learn on-the-go! The Legal Matters Podcast gives you bite-size nuggets of power-packed legal information that will help you protect yourself and your clients. Join our attorneys for a “Legal Bedtime Story” or for the scoop on vital issues like the “Top 5 RPA Mistakes”.


Miscellaneous/Contacts

Current legal developments, C.A.R. legal products and services.


CLOSE

What is This?
Add a quick link to this page from the Homepage when you are signed in
Share Article

September 20, 2021

Most of the data that came in over the past week has been encouraging. The public health numbers continue to improve. Recent economic releases show that the macro environment continues to recover despite the uptick in COVID cases last month. And the housing market remains relatively stable with sales remaining well above pre-crisis levels and prices setting new all-time high levels. There are signs that the market has and will continue to moderate from 15-year highs reached earlier, but the data skewed more positive over the past week.

Strong Jobs Data Despite COVID Surge: Despite a surge in new COVID cases last month, which has typically correlated with a reduction in jobs in high-contact industries, the California labor market continued its recovery with a second straight month with more than 100,000 new jobs created. Government employers added back nearly 46,900 jobs as public schools reopened across the state. Leisure and Hospitality, which is home to California’s bars, restaurants, hotels, and entertainment venues, also battled back with over 33,000 new jobs. And, although the unemployment rate remained unchanged from July at 7.6%, it was because more workers re-entered the labor force, which prevented the headline rate from dropping despite nearly 60,000 workers moving from unemployed to employed status. 

August Housing Data Shows New Record Prices: August’s sales pace was down 3.3% from July and down 10.9% from a year ago—to the lowest in 14 months. Despite the monthly and annual sales drop, California home sales remained strong by pre-pandemic standards, maintaining a solid year-to-date increase of 21.3 percent. California’s median home price set a new record in August at $827,940 — the fifth record set in six months. The August price was 2.1 percent higher than the $811,170 recorded in July and 17.1% higher than the $706,900 recorded last August. 

Market Competition Ebbs Slightly, but not “Cool” Yet: Although sales continue to dip from 15-year highs, prices continue to set new records and the market remains incredibly competitive—just slightly less than it was a few months ago. In August, the percentage of homes sold above asking price fell for the second time in a row to 67%. That’s still extremely elevated relative to historical norms, but it is an improvement from June when more than 71% of homes closed above list price.

Forbearance Exits Remain Encouraging: The Federal forbearance program is coming to an end in the next few weeks and the numbers remain encouraging that the market will avoid another major foreclosure crisis. The percentage of mortgages in forbearance continues to shrink—dipping to 3.08% from 3.23% the previous week. In addition, the exit data shows that banks have been much more amenable to working with homeowners facing challenges as more than 40% of borrowers getting out of forbearance have had their loan modified, had missed payments amortized into their loan over a period of time, or added onto the end of their loans. Another 42% of forbearances got off of the program because they never missed any payments, missed payments but already paid them back, or have since paid off their loans in full.

Interest Rates Down Slightly, but Stable in a Narrow Band: The typical rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped from 2.88% the previous week to 2.86% last week. Rates have been remarkably stable in recent weeks hovering just below 2.9% and the 10-year bond has also fallen, which suggests that the rebound in rates is likely to be sluggish over the near term. This perhaps explains the slight increase in homebuyer sentiment noted in August by CAR’s Housing Sentiment Survey of consumers as well as its weekly survey of REALTORS®. The mortgage applications also appear to be shrinking at a slower rate, as detailed below.

Light at the End of the Tunnel for Mortgage Apps?: Mortgage applications continued their streak of back-to-back declines with another double-digit year-to-year loss last week. This is the 17th consecutive week where there were fewer new purchase applications than there was during the same period last year. However, this is also when sales really began to take off last year so this partly explains the lackluster results. In addition, this was the smallest decline since early July, suggesting that the buyer fatigue may be losing momentum, if not plateauing fully yet. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Weekly Data for WE 2021-09-18

 


SUPPORT
Top Searches
;