Total Licensee Decline.

For the times they are a changing.

These words were penned more than 40 years ago by Bob Dylan, and are especially apropos of today’s real estate market.

In January 2000, the total licensee population stood at 303,000. In the next seven years, the licensee population grew every single month before peaking in December 2007 at 548,959. In 2005, the DRE was administering thousands of license examinations a month, setting a record in April 2005 by testing more than 22,000 would-be brokers and salespersons. To put things in perspective, less than 2,500 persons per month have sat for the real estate examination during the first quarter of 2008. Moreover, January 2008 marked the first time in 84 months that the licensee population declined, a trend that continues through today.

These numbers reveal something else: Nearly half of licensees obtained their real estate license in the past seven years. But more significant, these new agents have never experienced a market like the one we find ourselves in today. Gone are the days of multiple offers and quick sales. Now is the time for reinvention, innovation, and creativity; survival in the business depends upon it.

Agents now need to retool and change their approach. REO properties and short sales were essentially unheard of five years ago. Yet, in some markets, the sale of foreclosed properties and short sales represent a majority of sales. I have talked to agents who have learned the nuances of short sales and marketing techniques for quick and successful sales of REOs, and are thriving in this climate. I have seen agents refocus marketing efforts to first-time home buyers who are ready to take advantage of falling prices. Agents are taking the time to learn the advantages of government loan programs. Both FHA and CalHFA have programs that require little or no money down, features that are hard to find elsewhere.

We all need to understand that the real estate market is cyclical. Opportunities do exist today for success. Real estate licensees who learn to navigate the turbulent waters of today will hone skills to succeed in any market. To quote Bob Dylan, “The present now will soon be past …  for the times they are a changing.” And we all need to change with the times.

Jeff Davi is commissioner of the California Department of Real Estate.