×
Your C.A.R.
Industry 360°
Transaction Center
Learn & Thrive

Model MLS Rules/Materials

California Model MLS Rules, Issues Briefing Papers, and other articles and materials related to MLS policy.


Code of Ethics Violators

Summaries and photos of California REALTORS® who violated the Code of Ethics and were disciplined with a fine, letter of reprimand, suspension, or expulsion.


Statewide MLS Initiative

An explanation of C.A.R.'s position on MLS consolidations in general and a statewide MLS in particular.


NAR Code of Ethics

The most recent edition of the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice of the National Association of REALTORS®.


Professional Standards Materials

The California Professional Standards Reference Manual, Local Association Forms, Interboard Arbitration Rules, and other materials related to Code of Ethics enforcement and arbitration.


Housing Market Forecast

Following modest gains in home sales in 2016, California’s housing market will post a nominal increase in 2017.


Housing Matters Podcast

The all-new Housing Matters Podcast is your housing hub for market analysis, economic trends, and housing news.


Stay Connected

Stay connected with the latest releases by subscribing to the products and services that interest you.


Interactive Market Stats

Gain insights on California's housing market through interactive dashboards. Select your metrics and see where the data takes you.


Speeches & Presentations

From outreaches to webinars, the Research and Economics team is sharing their insight on the market and the economy.


Surveys & Highlights

Californians are surveyed annually to gain insights on the housing market from their persepective.


Recent Laws

Summaries of legislation and regulation effecting REALTORS® and updates on news relevant to REALTORS®.

Legal News 2017 Laws 2016 Laws
Legislation

C.A.R. advocates for REALTOR® issues in Washington D.C., Sacramento and in city and county governments throughout California.

Federal Issues State Government Affairs Local Advocacy Resources
PACs and RAF

CREPAC, LCRC, IMPAC and the RAF comprise C.A.R.'s political fundraising arm.

CREPAC/LCRC IMPAC State and Local REALTOR® Action Fund
Politics and You

Learn how you can make a difference, by getting involved yourself or by passing along valuable information to your clients.

Get Involved Homeowner Legislative Facts
Top Searches
CLOSE

California Housing Market Is Expected to Be Up in 2014

Email Article
Lock icon
The page you are sharing is not public and requires a car.org account to view.
Send Email
What is this?
Add a quick link to this page from the Homepage when you are signed in
Share Article

The California housing market had a decent performance in 2013 so far. For the first nine months of 2013, sales of existing single-family detached homes were down 3.2 percent when compared to the same period of last year. This decline in sales was attributed partially to the hike in interest rates in recent months, as the average 30-year fixed rate increased more than 100 basis points since April 2013 and was the highest since the mid of 2011. Looking forward, annual sales of detached homes are expected to decline slightly from 439,420 units in 2012 to 430,270 units in 2013, with 2014 improving to 444,040 units.
 
The year 2013 is a year when the housing market transition from “investor sales” to “primary home sales”. The share of investor sales is expected to decline as the number of bargain properties continues to decrease, while the share of primary home sales is expected to improve as the economy continues to grow.  As such, the increase in sales bought as primary homes will be undercut by the reduction in investor sales, and hence the slight decrease in overall sales in 2013. Next year will be a more “normal” year and the economy will presumably grow at a faster pace, which will provide support to the housing market.

With inventory levels remaining lean through the rest of 2013, the California median price is projected to increase 28.0 percent from $319,310 in 2012 to $408,600 in 2013. The significant increase in price in 2013 was due in part to the mix of sales. The sales share for higher end homes will continue to inch up or remain near the current level for the rest of the year. Thus, more homes in the upper price segments will be sold in 2013 when compared to 2012. Because of the change in the mix of sales from 2012, the statewide median price is expected to increase significantly on a year-to-year basis.

The increase in the median price at the state level, however, appears to be slowing down in recent months. Since the sales share of distressed sales is already at a low level and is expected to remain at or near that level for the rest of the year, it is unlikely to see the sales share of distressed properties declining much lower next year. The price appreciation due to a shift in the mix of sales should thus be much smaller than what we observed in 2013. As a result, the median price for California existing single family homes is projected to increase only six percent to $432,800 in 2014.

With the value of discounted properties continue to appreciate, investors are paring their purchases of distressed homes as their profit margin narrows.  As investors take a step back, inventory will likely improve slightly in the upcoming year.  Meanwhile, the increase in home prices will also encourage more homeowners to put their houses up for sale. The housing supply will grow and should gradually climb back from under three months in 2013 to about four months in 2014.


                         Click on Graph for Larger View
reanalysisoct13


FEEDBACK