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The Endgame Nears for Fannie and
Freddie.
Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have declined by approximately 90
percent from the previous year and both companies are reporting
quarter-over-quarter losses, leading some to believe than a government
take-over or complete privatization is imminent.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR THE CONSUMER
· According to the
Barron’s article, which states "should the agencies fail to raise fresh
capital, the administration is likely to mount its own
recapitalization, with Treasury infusing taxpayer money into the
enterprises," consumers would be led to believe that a government bail
out is the only option. Although a cash infusion may be needed,
it is not likely that the Treasury would purchase an equity stake in
either Fannie or Freddie. Additionally, the Treasury Dept. must
negotiate an agreement with the GSEs. Fannie and Freddie continue
to raise capital on their own and some reports show that the GSEs are
looking for private-equity firms or outside investors to provide the
financing, which would help raise capital and reassure Wall
Street.
· The article also states,
"In the early 1980s Fannie was effectively insolvent, but the
government allowed it to continue operating." Many consumers are not
aware of how the GSEs serve the market or what their roles are.
Unlike banks, which lend directly to consumers, Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac operate in what is known as the "secondary mortgage market." They
purchase or guarantee loans from direct lenders in the "primary
mortgage market" and either hold onto them until they mature, or sell
the loans in the form of mortgage-backed securities. By the GSEs
guaranteeing or purchasing the loans from banks, Fannie and Freddie are
able to fulfill their congressional mission and supply an affordable
and stable source of capital to lenders, allowing them to offer more
home loans.
· Due to tighter lending
standards, it is becoming increasingly more difficult for borrowers to
secure home loans. If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did not guarantee or
purchase primary lenders’ loans, the cost of homeownership would
dramatically increase as lenders would experience an even greater
capital shortage.
· Many financial institutions in the mortgage business are experiencing losses, and while the GSEs are no exception, their portfolios continue to outperform the majority of lenders in the market. Additionally, unlike private investors which seem to have abandoned the mortgage market, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are fulfilling their congressional mission to provide an affordable and stable flow of capital to home-loan lenders.
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://online.barrons.com/article_print/SB121884860106946277.html
Consumer outlook up, worst may be over for
housing
Primarily a result of lower
gas prices, consumer confidence increased in August, with The Conference
Board’s consumer conference index rising to 56.9, up from the revised 51.9
reading in July. Following a six-month decline, August was the second
consecutive month that the index increased. A reading of 100 is considered
the highest rating possible. In a separate report, new home sales posted an
unexpected increase in July, while the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller
U.S. National Home Price Index showed prices declined at a slower rate in
the second quarter, indicating that some areas may have reached the trough
in home price declines.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
· The Conference Board’s consumer conference index measures how consumers perceive the current conditions and future expectations of the US economy. The index is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households.
· The monthly survey details consumer attitudes and buying intentions. Increased consumer confidence generally indicates that consumers are more willing to make purchases. Decreased confidence indicates that consumers are likely to slow their spending.
· Although The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index declined to 63.2 in August, compared with 65.8 in July, consumers expect the economy to improve over the next six months, as indicated by The Conference Board’s Expectations Index. The Expectations Index increased by 10 points, the largest increase since November 2005.
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080826/ap_on_bi_ge/economy_5;_ylt=AjNSEZx6qZC4Cx7K1sLqPF.z1g4B
Home prices in record tumble, but some
find hints of recovery
Although
home prices decreased 15.4 percent during the second quarter compared with
the same period a year ago, in month-over-month comparisons, home sales are
increasing, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller U.S.
National Home Price Index. According to the Office of Federal Housing
Enterprise Oversight’s home price index, states with the largest annual
declines include California at 16 percent; Florida at 12 percent; Arizona
at 9 percent; and Rhode Island at 5 percent. Existing home sales increased
in July and exceeded many economists’ expectations, while new home sales
also increased 2.4 percent for the same time period.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
· Although home prices are decreasing, existing home sales are increasing nationwide and in California. In California, single-family, existing home sales increased 43.4 percent in July compared with the same period a year ago. Sales in July remained above the 400,000 level for the third consecutive month, with deeply-discounted, distressed sales continuing to drive volume in many regions of the state.
· The state’s Unsold Inventory Index (UII) for existing, single-family detached homes decreased to 6.7 months in July 2008, compared with 10 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The UII indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-08-26-homes_N.htm
In Other News…
Lenders remain wary of real estate investors
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://www.mercurynews.com/realestatenews/ci_10278013
More owners say their homes depreciated: survey
To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSN2293620080825
America’s Most Distressed Housing Markets
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/21/lifestyle-distressed-cities-forbeslife-cx_mw_0821realestate.html
Home buyers hold fate of U.S. economy
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2140034320080825
Paulson’s Fannie-Freddie fix
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/22/news/newsmakers/paulson.fannie.fortune/index.htm
Home sales in state soar as prices plunge
To read the full story, please click
here:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/26/MNQI12I0BI.DTL&hw=Home+sales+in+state+soar+as+prices+plunge&sn=001&sc=1000
Talking Points
Here’s what to tell consumers
· Despite the high inventory of homes on the market, sales of deeply discounted, distressed properties are increasing and the Unsold Inventory Index—which indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate-- is declining. With sellers often in competition with banks when selling their home, it is important for sellers to be aware of some best practices to help them sell their home. With guidance from their REALTOR®, consumers need to carefully consider the importance of realistically pricing a home; properly staging their house prior to putting it on the market; and playing up the home’s strengths.
· While it may be common knowledge to REALTORS® that the first offer is often the best, some sellers may not feel the same way. Many believe that if the first potential buyer makes an offer close to the asking price, future offers may exceed it. In many instances, this is not the case, and subsequent offers often are for less, especially in a declining market.
