Higher Interest Rates and Tighter Fiscal Policy--Navigating another Transition
Despite the housing crisis, Americans continue to favor homeownership by a wide margin. The challenge for REALTORS® and the housing market is how to assist them in meeting that aspiration in an environment of weak income growth and economic insecurity. This session will focus on the near term economic outlook and the economic challenges facing home buyers.
This session will focus on the general principle that balance is essential in housing, as in everything else, and that when housing markets and housing policies fall out of balance, disastrous things can ensue. The talk will point to methods for re-establishing and preserving balance in housing markets and housing policies.
GSE Reform Made Simple - Refi's vs. Homeownership Lending
Amid the intense debates, and perhaps eventual legislative solutions, to the perceived risks often associated with the GSE’s, the question of specifically what types of loans merit government support has rarely been asked. A look at the data suggests that focusing on “purchase money” financing, rather than supporting refinances (particularly those where cash is extracted) would have benefits in reducing the government's footprint in the mortgage market. Beyond this aspect, the focus on financing purchases would lower asset risk and act as a damper on overheated markets.
The Cause of Modern Systemic Financial Crises
In the first 80 years of the 20th century there was one major systemic financial crisis in the Great Depression. Since 1980 there have been four such crises that threatened continental and world financial markets and overall economic stability. The speaker will address what caused theses crises, their proliferation, and why they are apparently getting more severe. Based on the speaker’s book, The Causes and Remedies of Modern Systemic Financial Crises: From the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980’s to the U.S. and European Crises of the Early 21st Century (in manuscript) the speaker will explain why each of the four crises were caused by the same phenomenon and how each went through the same phases of development, crescendo, and resolution. The details of the most recent U.S. crisis will be used as the primary example, along with selected details of the other crises. Based on the past crises, he will explain what is the likeliest cause of the next one in the U.S. He will also explain how the phenomenon that caused past large systemic financial crises is affecting a wide array of other economic sectors, and promises to be a destabilizing economic force in the 21st century.
Will the Baby Boom Cause a Housing Bust?
The baby boom generation is large, and about to retire. This has led to concerns that once this generation retires, it will want to sell its houses, causing a glut on the market, and bring about a reduction in house prices. Whether this is true depends on whether baby boomers behave differently from predecessor generations. In the past, households have generally remained in their houses during their retirement years. Our research shows that the changing age structure of the population could lead to a small increase in housing demand in the years to come. At the same time, two other demographic trends could affect the housing market in the years to come. People are both moving less often and marrying less often. This suggests that the volume of housing sales in the years to come could fall.
Housing Climbs Back
Housing is poised to ignite a self-reinforcing virtuous economic cycle. Demand drivers are solid and supply is tight. Job growth is steady, owning a home remains highly affordable, and household formation is rising. Concurrently, the supply of homes, particularly of new homes, is exceedingly tight and overall excess supply is shrinking. These forces should overcome the negative factors that are weighing on housing.
Unusual and Less Desirable Housing Market Recovery
Housing is one of the most cyclical sectors of the economy. The declines and upturns in sales and new construction have historically been very pronounced, but not this time. The housing recovery to-date has been hamstrung by a new set of frictions in the marketplace. As a result, surely unintentionally, the wealth gap between the haves and the have-nots is undoubtedly rising in America.
The Local Economic Impact of Building Homes: Does Housing Pay for Itself?
Building new homes generates additional taxes and revenues to local governments, but many remain convinced that housing does not pay for itself. In the most simplistic approach, opponents of new development cite the expected real estate tax as the sole new income to the area and balance that against added fiscal costs. A more objective and comprehensive approach views new homes as an added economic engine that contains a number of economic ripples contributing to local government revenues. Learn the real added economic benefits and fiscals costs to building new homes that make new homes a net economic gain.
Release Your Inner Nerd: Online Tools and Apps to Increase Productivity and Awesomeness
Ever feel like others know about computer shortcuts and apps and you’ve missed the memo?
Today’s technology has the capability to streamline your daily tasks and make you and your business more productive. Author Beth Ziesenis will take the mystery out of online tools to increase productivity and make working with others easier! And best of all, the tools she shares are all either free or darn cheap; perfect for any budget.
In this session, you’ll discover:
·Free tools that replace very expensive software
·Quick fixes for productivity roadblocks
·The best resources for working with others
·Web based solutions to access on the go
·Time saving, budget conscious tools that don’t require an IT degree to figure out!
·Bonus: Leave the session with a quick reference guide to 100+ favorite tools!
The Emerging Purchase Market
House-price gains and mortgage-rate increases have blunted affordability for home buyers in southern California. Still, home sales are well below the depressed levels of a few years ago. First-time and move-up buyers have returned to the market and sales are expected to grow further in the coming year as long as economic recovery continues in the region.
The Growing Importance of Demographics in Housing Markets
Demographics loom large in the post-recession quest for the new normal. Immigrants, Millennials and Baby Boomers will all play major roles. The foundation of the housing market is the age group under 35, but growth has surged and subsided in that age group in different decades. After doldrums in the 1990s, the period from 2005 to 2020 is experiencing a major rejuvenation, fed by the Millennials who are the children of the Boomers. In the coming decade they will stock the ranks of first-time home buyers. Meanwhile, the Baby Boomers have ended their 30-year acquisition phase and gradually they will begin to be major sellers. Currently they are on hold, neither buying or selling, but over the next decade the Boomers will begin to serve as the dominant source of home sales. Immigrants provide a boost of growing demand that is often under-recognized, but nationwide they will account for roughly 36% of the growth in homeowners this decade, as well as 32% of the growth in renters. The outcome of immigration reform could be to sustain or increase this source of demand, or it could depress it. The combination of Millennials and immigrants will be vital for absorbing the massive number of sales by Boomers over the next 20 years.
Real Estate Information: Past, Present and Future
We place tremendous reliance on data in the real estate market as a guide to market activity. Unfortunately, most of the statistics we rely upon are fatally flawed. Sales data is largely based on samples of MLS, and price data measures, not value, but the mix of market activity. Yet these highly imperfect measures move financial markets. Ironically, the data most real estate professional treasure--local numbers--are the very statistics we have neglected. If real estate as an industry is to benefit from using data, it must move in the direction of emphasizing micro measures and wean itself away from broad market indicators.
What Forces are Driving California’s Recovery?
California's housing market continues to see a tale of two recoveries. Prices have rebounded and the backlog of foreclosures has been worked down. Some areas are doing better than others, however, and the improvement in the underlying fundamentals varies considerably from market to market. Mark will examine the fundamentals behind California's housing recovery and discuss how much more improvement we should expect in 2014.
Capable is NOT Competent: The Human Condition in The Real Estate Industry
What do statistics say about efficiencies in the real estate business? Pat will present startling and local MLS data-driven facts which prove that our industry's biggest challenges are more about human condition than they are about market condition. His often humorous observations point out the weaknesses in organized real estate and in brokerage business models. They are seen by many as a call to action to change our industry practices at their very core.
Fear and Loathing in the Housing Market: New Evidence from Google Search Query Data
We use Google search data to develop a broad-based and real-time index of housing distress. Unlike established indicators, this new Housing Distress Index (HDI) directly reflects sentiment revealed through search queries. Research findings indicate that the HDI provides important new insights in the determination of subprime mortgage credit-default swaps, the VIX, foreclosures, and national or city-specific housing returns. Further, the effects of housing distress on returns are asymmetric and stronger during times of crisis. Overall, results suggest that real estate and related markets are highly sensitive to vulnerabilities in household finances as captured by our measure of housing distress.
How Did Washington Get It So Wrong?
Sean gives his street savvy take on the housing lessons we should have learned from the bubble, but didn't; and the regulatory solutions we should have in place, but don't.
Can I Afford That?: Financial Literacy & Homeownership
For most households, buying a home is the biggest financial commitment they will ever make. And buying a home is just one of many important financial decisions that will shape that household’s future well-being. Most people receive little if any training in financial literacy, yet are more responsible than ever for their financial futures. How might the challenge of financial literacy be met?
Who Do You Have to Be to Get a Mortgage?
Buying a home and financing the purchase with a mortgage is a daunting task at best, baffling and intimidating at worst. Amy shares her personal experiences with home buying and refinancing mortgages over the past 20 years, describing the many surprises she has encountered along the way.